NEPAL STILL AT POTENTIAL AFTERSHOCK RISK

Still aftershocks hit us now and then & no day passes by without one!

What more?? USGS today published an article titled "Strong Aftershocks Possible in Nepal in next 7 days"

Prediction : Within the week of May 20 to May 26, chances of hitting at least one magnitude(5 to 6 Richter Scale) aftershock is 40% probable and up to 3 such events are likely to happen.

The major question is "Are we still at gunpoint of mega shocks?"
It is hard to believe on such random releases (no matter it is via USGS or Siesmo Nepal) without enough proof which they fail to show in their official sites. So, I decided to peep through quake data on siesmonepal.gov.np and found some striking resemblance. Indeed, they seem to talk no nonsense. <Not to worry though.. it's just that we all need to act strong and stay safe.>

Let us try to back-trace some data <<represented by green filled arrow below>> (because latest records are at the top and we need to determine how the quakes are responding lately since early measures)  and here are some prime highlights.

The above analysis depicts clearly that after some regular minor aftershocks (the phase we are in as of talking now), Nepal is facing some disturbing higher magnitudes hit (Fun Fact:As we climb 1 magnitude above in a Richter Scale chart, each Richter scale is 33x powerful than to its lower scale). Such irregular yet destructive higher aftershocks are circled RED above.

What can vividly be distinguished is that what USGS research on similar data has to warn us is somehow possible! :(

Aftershocks have potential to create damages, just like main earthquakes. Some aftershocks are widely felt while some are  limited to narrow regions. But there must be awareness among people that it is yet risky to stay inside vulnerable houses, already weakened by past earthquakes and low magnitude tremors, and also spend time nearby weak structures or monuments.

We had been enlisted by United Nations regarding mega earthquake hit 4 to 5 years back and we did not seem to care much. Result: We lost thousands of people, homes and historically as well as religiously important monuments. Now, we have been alerted again and this time we must make sure not to repeat the same carelessness.

[Note:A second powerful earthquake (6.8 Richter Scale) in less than three weeks on May 12, 2015  killed at least 66 in Nepal including 17 in neighbouring India and  1 in Chinese Tibet after the mega-quake devastated the nation with death toll 9000 and  rising every minute.]

Stay safe. Let us all survive this earthquake with a strong heart. This too shall pass. :)

Tons of thanks to my 8K+ followers who send me priceless information every day via twitter. Your tremendous support and love helps me write such content. To be a part of it, simply follow me @sushil_NASA <<CLICK HERE>> and let me know your views, suggestions or what do you like me to post next. You can also inbox me your snapshots via twitter to get featured in 'OUR TOP FOLLOWERS' fame-display (Scroll to top of this page and check to your right navigation bar to see already featured pictures...)

Do let us know about the analysis below in comment section if you feel like zapping your lazy fingertips on random keys ;) 

SOME KEY ANALYSIS ON NEPAL EARTHQUAKE DATA -- WHAT IT REVEALS IS VITAL

Hello there,

I am well aware that situation is quite tensed by now ... frequent aftershocks in sporadic intervals and encompassing public outcry have led most of us to psychological trauma and anxiety. But not to worry, experts claim that these minor yet frequent tremors are quite a good sign and further keep the possibility of any future mega-earthquake hit to a distant.

Nevertheless, we must keep ourselves safe unless these spine-chilling aftershocks stop hitting the nation. 

Among hardships and death tolls crossing the boundaries, I decided to do some quick earthquake data analysis and here is what I got.. 

First things first, I decided to check in Official Siesmological Site of Nepal from where I was able to extract all the values such as Local Time of Hit, Magnitude (in Richter Scale) etc. 

Then, I used Copy Column Chrome extension to copy all the data from the site to Notepad++ (as it gives me the line number which is equal to total tremors that has hit Nepal since Mega Earthquake on April 25, 2015). Any guesses, how many shocks have fellow Nepalese suffered till this blog has been posted??? 


ITS  237.  No, I am not kidding... Here's the proof.

Next, I thought of writing a suitable code to analyse following points:

    
    1. Duration between two consecutive aftershocks.
    2. Number of aftershocks between an hour interval from 00:00 AM to 24:00 PM

 
To further make the analysis more profound and vital, I also decided to calculate the safest hours and peak risky hours during the day. How I made out these tricky understanding from the mere raw data I had just pulled out of the site?? Well, without a due, here are my steps (you can carry out yourselves to verify).

Spoiler Alert: I am usually a HTML plus PHP/SQL coder when it comes to web designing. But now, it was a matter of data analysis. So, I decided to switch to C/C++ for quality results. I also found file handling feature in C/C++ handy during this project (You can also use PHP for that matter but I find the former easier to code).


Here's my code (You can let me know if you have come up with your own code in some other languages you find yourself comfortable with. Feel free to post in the comment section below this post.)

Now, you must be wondering what is the above confusing code(though it is not if you know file handling feature of C well) upto!? 

Well, I am here to your rescue :)

My code simply populates an ordinary text file "times_modified.txt" with ascending order of 'local time of hit' and 'duration between consecutive hits'.  The above code also populates the 'total aftershocks' (also called tremors) between two consecutive standard hours (for ex. Between 1 AM to 2 AM).

The text file generated shall look like this.

TIMES_MODIFIED.TXT

0:07----=0
0:14----=7
0:16----=2
0:39----=23
0:43----=4
0:44----=1
0:58----=14
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 1 is [7]------$$$----
1:29----=31
1:49----=20
1:50----=1
1:52----=2
1:56----=4
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 2 is [5]------$$$----
2:07----=11
2:08----=1
2:08----=0
2:14----=6
2:15----=1
2:17----=2
2:19----=2
2:49----=30
2:52----=3
2:56----=4
2:59----=3
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 3 is [11]------$$$----
3:08----=9
3:10----=2
3:12----=2
3:13----=1
3:23----=10
3:29----=6
3:37----=8
3:38----=1
3:41----=3
3:42----=1
3:55----=13
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 4 is [11]------$$$----
4:06----=11
4:11----=5
4:15----=4
4:17----=2
4:27----=10
4:28----=1
4:38----=10
4:38----=0
4:49----=11
4:59----=10
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 5 is [10]------$$$----
5:01----=2
5:05----=4
5:25----=20
5:26----=1
5:32----=6
5:47----=15
5:54----=7
5:55----=1
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 6 is [8]------$$$----
6:00----=5
6:11----=11
6:16----=5
6:17----=1
6:22----=5
6:24----=2
6:31----=7
6:34----=3
6:39----=5
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 7 is [8]------$$$----
7:00----=21
7:27----=27
7:45----=18
7:56----=11
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 8 is [4]------$$$----
8:00----=4
8:08----=8
8:18----=10
8:19----=1
8:28----=9
8:31----=3
8:40----=9
8:43----=3
8:52----=9
8:55----=3
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 9 is [10]------$$$----
9:06----=11
9:06----=0
9:24----=18
9:32----=8
9:35----=3
9:54----=19
9:59----=5
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 10 is [7]------$$$----
10:05----=6
10:33----=28
10:33----=0
10:35----=2
10:35----=0
10:36----=1
10:43----=7
10:46----=3
10:51----=5
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 11 is [9]------$$$----
11:08----=17
11:13----=5
11:20----=7
11:28----=8
11:56----=28
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 12 is [5]------$$$----
12:08----=12
12:11----=3
12:22----=11
12:23----=1
12:30----=7
12:34----=4
12:38----=4
12:41----=3
12:50----=9
12:53----=3
12:54----=1
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 13 is [11]------$$$----
13:02----=8
13:12----=10
13:17----=5
13:17----=0
13:21----=4
13:22----=1
13:28----=6
13:29----=1
13:32----=3
13:32----=0
13:33----=1
13:46----=13
13:51----=5
13:58----=7
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 14 is [14]------$$$----
14:02----=4
14:05----=3
14:06----=1
14:09----=3
14:14----=5
14:19----=5
14:20----=1
14:24----=4
14:25----=1
14:30----=5
14:31----=1
14:34----=3
14:40----=6
14:44----=4
14:47----=3
14:48----=1
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 15 is [16]------$$$----
15:05----=17
15:09----=4
15:10----=1
15:14----=4
15:15----=1
15:17----=2
15:20----=3
15:23----=3
15:24----=1
15:27----=3
15:28----=1
15:29----=1
15:37----=8
15:40----=3
15:49----=9
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 16 is [15]------$$$----
16:00----=11
16:08----=8
16:16----=8
16:20----=4
16:23----=3
16:25----=2
16:26----=1
16:44----=18
16:44----=0
16:50----=6
16:51----=1
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 17 is [11]------$$$----
17:00----=9
17:03----=3
17:06----=3
17:12----=6
17:19----=7
17:20----=1
17:26----=6
17:37----=11
17:43----=6
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 18 is [9]------$$$----
18:02----=19
18:02----=0
18:02----=0
18:13----=11
18:24----=11
18:29----=5
18:47----=18
18:53----=6
18:56----=3
18:58----=2
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 19 is [10]------$$$----
19:08----=10
19:15----=7
19:21----=6
19:28----=7
19:38----=10
19:42----=4
19:43----=1
19:47----=4
19:55----=8
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 20 is [9]------$$$----
20:08----=13
20:17----=9
20:21----=4
20:21----=0
20:25----=4
20:27----=2
20:27----=0
20:29----=2
20:35----=6
20:36----=1
20:42----=6
20:44----=2
20:50----=6
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 21 is [13]------$$$----
21:01----=11
21:02----=1
21:13----=11
21:21----=8
21:36----=15
21:36----=0
21:40----=4
21:47----=7
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 22 is [8]------$$$----
22:07----=20
22:08----=1
22:10----=2
22:12----=2
22:15----=3
22:17----=2
22:19----=2
22:31----=12
22:39----=8
22:39----=0
22:42----=3
22:58----=16
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 23 is [12]------$$$----
23:01----=3
23:13----=12
23:19----=6
23:19----=0
23:24----=5
23:25----=1
23:27----=2
23:30----=3
23:40----=10
23:46----=6
23:51----=5
23:54----=3
23:59----=5
------$$$----TOTAL TREMOR COUNT TILL 24'o clock is [13]------$$$----

Now, based on this, I got some prime highlights which are key to understand earthquake patterns, though random but probable, in details so that we can plan our daily chores inside our home with minimum risk and keep our family safe.

The waiting ends here. :P

SAFEST TIME

7 AM to 8 AM     [No. of tremors so far = 3]

1 AM to 2 AM     [No. of tremors so far = 4]

11 AM to 12 AM  [No. of tremors so far = 4]

RISKIEST TIME

2 PM to 3 PM     [No. of tremors so far = 15]

3 PM to 4 PM     [No. of tremors so far = 14]

1 PM to 2 PM     [No. of tremors so far = 13]

CONCLUSION:"Stay safe. Stay Strong." Do your in house chores only in safe time to minimize the risk, but always keep in mind that Earthquakes are not predictable! :(
Do lets us know if you have done your own analysis below! Let us know if you liked the page.

You can also follow me @sushil_NASA

  

                                 Photo Designed by: Sushil Pratap Bharati