Thursday, May 21, 2015

NEPAL STILL AT POTENTIAL AFTERSHOCK RISK

Still aftershocks hit us now and then & no day passes by without one!

What more?? USGS today published an article titled "Strong Aftershocks Possible in Nepal in next 7 days"

Prediction : Within the week of May 20 to May 26, chances of hitting at least one magnitude(5 to 6 Richter Scale) aftershock is 40% probable and up to 3 such events are likely to happen.

The major question is "Are we still at gunpoint of mega shocks?"
It is hard to believe on such random releases (no matter it is via USGS or Siesmo Nepal) without enough proof which they fail to show in their official sites. So, I decided to peep through quake data on siesmonepal.gov.np and found some striking resemblance. Indeed, they seem to talk no nonsense. <Not to worry though.. it's just that we all need to act strong and stay safe.>

Let us try to back-trace some data <<represented by green filled arrow below>> (because latest records are at the top and we need to determine how the quakes are responding lately since early measures)  and here are some prime highlights.




The above analysis depicts clearly that after some regular minor aftershocks (the phase we are in as of talking now), Nepal is facing some disturbing higher magnitudes hit (Fun Fact:As we climb 1 magnitude above in a Richter Scale chart, each Richter scale is 33x powerful than to its lower scale). Such irregular yet destructive higher aftershocks are circled RED above.

What can vividly be distinguished is that what USGS research on similar data has to warn us is somehow possible! :(

Aftershocks have potential to create damages, just like main earthquakes. Some aftershocks are widely felt while some are  limited to narrow regions. But there must be awareness among people that it is yet risky to stay inside vulnerable houses, already weakened by past earthquakes and low magnitude tremors, and also spend time nearby weak structures or monuments.

We had been enlisted by United Nations regarding mega earthquake hit 4 to 5 years back and we did not seem to care much. Result: We lost thousands of people, homes and historically as well as religiously important monuments. Now, we have been alerted again and this time we must make sure not to repeat the same carelessness.

[Note:A second powerful earthquake (6.8 Richter Scale) in less than three weeks on May 12, 2015  killed at least 66 in Nepal including 17 in neighbouring India and  1 in Chinese Tibet after the mega-quake devastated the nation with death toll 9000 and  rising every minute.]

Stay safe. Let us all survive this earthquake with a strong heart. This too shall pass. :)

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Do let us know about the analysis below in comment section if you feel like zapping your lazy fingertips on random keys ;) 





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